Monday, July 31, 2006

Decision making and Risk taking


Often in life, we reach decision points where we need to make a choice between 2 potentially life-altering options. Other times, we may spot an opportunity of sorts upon the horizon. These situations normally come packed with the relevant risks and given the same scenario, its very likely that different folks would approach it in different manners. However, one thing that I’ve noticed is that few actually leave the beaten track. And that’s a pity in some sense.

Personally, when it comes to making big decisions, I apply 2 different philosophies or mindsets to tackle the choice. These somewhat defines the amount of risk I can take.

Philosophy #1: “Would I look back and wonder?”
When facing a big decision on the horizon, the first thing I normally do is to try to figure out where each may lead to. Normally, there are only 3 outcomes – Life as usual, having taken the plunge and succeeding or taking the plunge and failing.

Most people tend to apply the cost-benefit analysis to the equation and feel that the returns for something do not justify the cost. Maybe they are right? Or maybe their minds just rationalized their risk-adverse nature into ballooning the risks far beyond what they actually are. What I do is just ask a question “If I don’t take this opportunity now, would I be looking back on this day and ten years later and imagine what it may have led to?” Though slightly clichéd, its rationale is clear when you look back on choices you have made previously and wonder if those paths you didn’t take could have led you to somewhere better.

And you know what? If you jumped on all opportunities, you’ve probably gotten the answer to that in the near future so you wouldn’t be wondering later. This is kind of akin to the motto that if you try something and fail, at least you learn what doesn’t work.

Philosophy #2: “Does it still seem like a good idea in the morning?”
Sometimes, an idea or opportunity looks so irresistibly good that you feel that you need to grab it right there on the spot. But as they always say, haste makes waste so caveat ‘opportunist’. Normally, you get sometime to make decisions so another way I measure if I should go for something is to sleep on it and if it still feels like a good idea in the morning, I’ll probably take it up. There is a warning though, not to drag things out for too long although you may have say, a week or a month to make the final call. This is because situations may change and more thought on the matter may make you more hesitant about the final go or no-go choice.

For me, this is a good way to keep crazy ideas under check also. This is especially true for those who face blinding spur of the moment optimism.


So there you have it, 2 angles I take on risk taking. May have a personal hue to it so take from it what you may.

Just a final quotation which I thought fits the theme of what I was trying to express:


“Two roads diverged in the road and I,
I took the one less travelled by,
And that has made all the difference.”
- Robert Frost



(PS: Here a related article from Bjorn :CrossRoads of Life — Do People Die There? )

1 comment:

Bernard Leong said...

Hi Wannapreneur,

Nice article. I thought that this poem "Smooth Between Sea and Land” by AE Housman will be of help to you. It was given to me by my teacher as advice for taking the path for the future:

“Smooth between sea and land
Is laid the yellow sand,
And here through summer days
The seed of Adam plays.

Here the child comes to found
His unremaining mound,
And the grown lad to score
Two names upon the shore.

Here, on the level sand,
Between the sea and land,
What shall I build or write
Against the fall of night?

Tell me of runes to grave
That hold the bursting wave,
Or bastions to design
For longer date than mine.

Shall it be Troy or Rome
I fence against the foam,
Or my own name, to stay
When I depart for aye?

Nothing: too near at hand,
Planing the figured sand,
Effacing clean and fast
Cities not built to last
And charms devised in vain,
Pours the confounding main.”