Decision making and Risk taking

Often in life, we reach decision points where we need to make a choice between 2 potentially life-altering options. Other times, we may spot an opportunity of sorts upon the horizon. These situations normally come packed with the relevant risks and given the same scenario, its very likely that different folks would approach it in different manners. However, one thing that I’ve noticed is that few actually leave the beaten track. And that’s a pity in some sense.

Personally, when it comes to making big decisions, I apply 2 different philosophies or mindsets to tackle the choice. These somewhat defines the amount of risk I can take.

Philosophy #1: “Would I look back and wonder?”
When facing a big decision on the horizon, the first thing I normally do is to try to figure out where each may lead to. Normally, there are only 3 outcomes – Life as usual, having taken the plunge and succeeding or taking the plunge and failing.

Most people tend to apply the cost-benefit analysis to the equation and feel that the returns for something do not justify the cost. Maybe they are right? Or maybe their minds just rationalized their risk-adverse nature into ballooning the risks far beyond what they actually are. What I do is just ask a question “If I don’t take this opportunity now, would I be looking back on this day and ten years later and imagine what it may have led to?” Though slightly clichéd, its rationale is clear when you look back on choices you have made previously and wonder if those paths you didn’t take could have led you to somewhere better.

And you know what? If you jumped on all opportunities, you’ve probably gotten the answer to that in the near future so you wouldn’t be wondering later. This is kind of akin to the motto that if you try something and fail, at least you learn what doesn’t work.

Philosophy #2: “Does it still seem like a good idea in the morning?”
Sometimes, an idea or opportunity looks so irresistibly good that you feel that you need to grab it right there on the spot. But as they always say, haste makes waste so caveat ‘opportunist’. Normally, you get sometime to make decisions so another way I measure if I should go for something is to sleep on it and if it still feels like a good idea in the morning, I’ll probably take it up. There is a warning though, not to drag things out for too long although you may have say, a week or a month to make the final call. This is because situations may change and more thought on the matter may make you more hesitant about the final go or no-go choice.

For me, this is a good way to keep crazy ideas under check also. This is especially true for those who face blinding spur of the moment optimism.


So there you have it, 2 angles I take on risk taking. May have a personal hue to it so take from it what you may.

Just a final quotation which I thought fits the theme of what I was trying to express:

“Two roads diverged in the road and I,
I took the one less travelled by,
And that has made all the difference.”
- Robert Frost


(PS: Here a related article from Bjorn :CrossRoads of Life — Do People Die There? )

Top 100 World Brands and why I think they are there.

Great, this year's Interbrand rankings for the 100 most valuable brand names are out here.

Branding has always been something of an interest for me because it is the art of how companies shape themselves in the eyes of their consumers. An important skill for a firm to have in both good times and bad.

Not surprisingly, the top of the board are ruled by huge multi-nationals whom have spend decades on bringing their brand name and values around the globe. I'm pretty sure that many of those top contenders such as Coca-cola and Nokia have spend a substantial amount of advertising dollars into both the traditional media as well as experimenting with new avenues that the Internet offers.

Top mover (in terms of percentage increase) on the list is Internet Behemoth - Google (46%). With its rapidly expanding range of products and services coupled its strong business fundamentals in such a volatile industry, its brand value has managed to outpace its closest competitor, Yahoo (15%) , by almost 3 times. Also notable is eBay's 18% increase in brand value, notching it 7 steps higher this year. These are the only 3 Internet Firms on this list and I'm would think that the nature of their business would allow them to increase brand value fairly rapidly over the foreseeable future.

Amongst the top ten, its interesting to see that only non-US companies, Nokia (#6) and Toyota (#7) , have seen double-digit brand value increases of 14% and 12% respectively. Perhaps this could be attributed to the fact that both companies are driving hard into project their brands into the emerging markets of Asia while developing their interests in North America at the same time. Nokia's strength may derive from its aggressive expansion in the Asia markets, most notably China. Toyota may also be doing well in the States as more consumers are ditching their SUVs other gas guzzlers in favour of the more efficient Japanese Automobiles in the face of rising gas prices.

Its going to be interesting to see how these movers and shakers will be evolving to capture more brand value and mind share this year.

Top 100 Global Brands List [via : Digg ]

No Excuse Leadership

This is one of the finest leadership books I've ever read. It charts the lessons and development of 10 Army Rangers and how some of them have brought the lessons and principles learnt from Ranger School into the corporate world.

The title's namesake comes from a speech a Ranger Colonel gave which inspired the author to sign up for Ranger School. Here's a short excerpt:

For a second I felt it was just Colonel Turner and myself in the room, and he was looking right at me from two feet away. "Well, cadet, what's it gonna be? Ranger -- or EXCUSE?"

Grasp the simplicity and power of No Excuses, and you have guaranteed success.

"Well, what's it gonna be? Wealthy -- or excuse?"
"Well, what's it gonna be? Healthy -- or excuse?"
"Well, what's it gonna be? A good parent -- or excuse?"
"Well, what's it gonna be? A good friend -- or excuse?"
"Well, what's it gonna be? A good employee -- or excuse?"
"Well, what's it gonna be? A good leader -- or excuse?"

If you set goals in line with your personal priorities, and never accept excuses for failure, you will succeed.

Not done with the whole book yet but even halfway through, I strongly recommend this as a good read on not just leadership, but many other of life's important principles.

[No Excuse Leadership]

Preparation and Teamwork - A Gunfight Analogy

Doing something without preparation is like going to a gunfight with a knife.

Doing something with preparation would be bringing the right gun to the gunfight. But it still doesn't mean you'll win.

Now, if you can add in the right dosage of good teamwork, it would be going to that same gunfight with four friends and a tank.

Learning Leadership ?

Leadership is a pretty over-rated topic at times but had a couple of thoughts about how to go about developing what I would term "leadership on a personal level". This, I feel, is the foundation to being able to develop further in this area. Just a couple of thoughts on what I apply myself:

1. Learn about yourself - This is essentially the most basic yet hard to achieve element. You may scoff and say "Of course I know all about me!" but perhaps not at a deeper level. Knowing enough about yourself includes knowing your weaknesses and when they appear. For example, you may discover that you tend to become subconciously disorganised when nervous or under stress. Or that when interacting with people in stressful situations, you tend to stutter. Being mindful of all these facts will help you to acknowledge these personal weaknesses. That was the hard part, the next step is simply to find logical ways to keep your spirits and confidence
   
2. Learn about the people around you- Learn and understand the strength and weakness of people around you. Its similar to the first point and would help you to be mindful about how to project yourself positively. In teams especially, understanding how each member interacts is crucial. The key and most difficult aspect to this is to be objective and seek to understand everyone as much as possible. At the same time, learning about how people around you work gives tons of opportunities for self-reflection and correction - pick up the best attributes from people and be mindful to avoid negative ones you spot.
   
3. Learn from the best - This can be from mentor figures you may have or just plainly by reading up on the topic from books. Watching great leaders in action bring the double benefit of live learning coupled with a constant inspiration to excel. In terms of reading up, I've found that the best leadership books are the military-themed ones. My logic behind it is that in the military, successes and failures are much better documented and examined because they are matters of life and death. Being able to analyse a military failure, the military force hopes to avoid such a reccurrence. For companies and organisations, this is seldom the case as success stories tend to be played up while failure ones are toned down.
   

So this is how YouTube Plans to Make Money?

And so, it seems like this latest YouTube development is going to answer the million dollar question of how its going to substain itself financially. Having gone through several rounds of VC funding and with a high monthly burn rate for their bandwidth, tech pundits waited on the edge of their seats to see what this major media player would do to turn in some revenue.

And the answer to all this – to make users agree to give it the rights to all the uploaded media from its million of users. Its no secret that they have a wide range of users ranging from teenagers posting up home videos which they then link elsewhere to indie artistes who upload their original music in hopes of gaining greater recognition and a shot at the big time.
This would mean, in terms of music alone, YouTube could transform itself into becoming the home to the largest and most diverse pool of artists. The possibilities for other types of media monetization are equally mind-boggling.

And while this move have strung up a line of controversial commentaries, I would feel that YouTube has successfully gained enough traction from its user base while maintaining a reputation as a site which respects copyright holders. These two factor may just be the edge that it need to pull this one off.

[via : Boing Boing ]

5 Tips for Better Tech Customer Service

Recently just made trips to 2 different customer service centers to fix a printer and a laptop. Both were pretty big names in the industry but I don’t think that they were doing the best for the customer yet. Without going into a lengthy tirade on what they handled not so well, I kind of have a couple of ideas from the customer perspective, so all you Customer Service Execs from IT Firms listen up:

1. We need our tech toys – Let’s face it, a lot of technological stuff we use these days are pretty important to our daily work and lives. We increasingly spend more and more time and bank it on it work fine, and that explains our distress (to put it lightly) when they fail catastrophically on it. Having said so, it is amazing how many companies feel it is ok for you to not to have a replacement machine while they wait for weeks for a replacement part to arrive (bad supply chain management or just too much paperwork?)
2. We treasure our time a lot – The worst thing you can do to someone already losing productivity over an unforeseen device crash is to insist that they make more trips then necessary for what may be a simple repair. Especially when your customer service centre is tucked away in some remote industrial park. Why not quickly fix jobs which can be handled on the spot? This problem probably arises because the customer service officer at the front desk isn’t sure how long it takes to fix it and artificially extends the repair time provide more breathing space. How about just pushing the tech guys who actually fix the gadget to the front desk? Which brings me to the next point
3. We don’t like the blame game – How often have you had blame for the delays on your equipment repair pushed from the customer service officer to generic tech guy #1 to generic tech #2 to shipping delays? Why wouldn’t someone just be accountable for a particular job and take it through all the way? I’m sure I would love to have more pro-active repair folks updating me on the status of my repairs rather than myself having to call in to check on it all the time.
4. We love discounts that make sense – When lower value items like printers die off, most of the time, repair costs are pretty high as compared to getting another printer. Instead of pushing the repair job to the back, why not try a bit of cross selling? I’m sure a trade-in discount that brings the latest $600 printer down to $550 would look better than waiting a week to fix the old one for $400. On the plus side, the trade-in printer can then be cannibalized for spare repair parts too.
5. We want to know what’s wrong – Often, once you send a broken tech toy in, you got to wait for a couple of weeks for the tech guy to do his magic before seeing it again. Most consumers may be fine with this but how about simple repairs? Perhaps the tech guy can walk the customer through how to fix it himself? Though not all customers may appreciate this, why not make it interesting for those who want to learn? The best part is that these folks would appreciate the transparency and also know what the do when the same problem comes up again.

Lets face it, the harder customer service works, the less customers should be coming back. They should be the only department whose success metric is based on how fast they get rid of clients.

So there.

Amazing Customer Service Stories

Wanna have a world class company? Then better work on having world class customer service folks and evangelists work for you like these examples :

Case #1 : Google
Online Marketeer complains that Google is giving him a headache
Google sends him a handwritten note and an asprin

Case #2 : Nintendo
Phone-in customer service offers to replace dog-chewed DSLite at fraction of price

Case #3: Netflix
Refunds DVD returned from ex-subscriber


Pretty sure there are more such cases but kudos to these companies for taking the extra effort to inject that WOW factor into their service.


(NB: Found most of these stories from Digg which millions read per day. Isn't that reason enough to beef up your own customer service? ;) )

Youthepreneur - Uncreative and Tired Concept

"Youthepreneur" is Republic Polytechnic and the National Library Board's latest project. This project is (in their own words) "essentially a real life platform designed to engage enterprising youths and social groups in authentic learning via a structured entrepreneurship education program." Very nicely padded mission statement if you ask me.

Normally I would just sigh and shake my head but I think this deserves a dishonourable mention on the following few grounds of uttter lack of creativity (ironic as this is suppose to promote it, I think )

1. Pushcart Competition - concept used so many times that it just doesn't cut it anymore. Uncreative and tired idea. Somehow might have been due to strange notion that pushcart retail is entrepreneurial as it has one of the lowest startup costs.
2. "am Student, pm Boss" - way to go, now everyone is going to fall in love with the concept of being self-employed (note choice of words). Already when there are people looking at self employment for all the wrong reasons like dreaming of striking it rich suddenly and not enjoying the pride of being known as boss, further punching this twisted notion into young impressionable minds is, to put it lightly, regretful. Time for quick revision on the differences between the words "Self-Employeed" and "Entrepreneur"
3. Studenpreneur, Youthepreneur - Haven't we screwed with the suffix "preneur" enough already? 'Nuff said.
   
4. Why have contests / competitions instead of just encouraging youths to just take a plunge outside? Still trying to spoonfeed them entrepeneurial skills? (which to me is an absurd notion by itself, read it again if you don't get me). Do we want to just train more pushcart vendors or do we sincerely want to create and promote a culture and mindset where the truely innovative and driven flourish?
   

As you can guess, I'm not exactly an avid fan of such events. The effort and funding behind these often-duplicated events could have been better in other ways then to jerk up publicity for the organisers, which seems to be the main idea in the first place. Why not just go use the funds to back some deserving student enterprise instead of just playing safe and sticking in back into some over-used event format?

[ via : Youthepreneur ]

Great McDonald’s Billdboard Ad

Pretty creative to make a billboard ad into a helluva big sundial. No idea why we aren’t seeing more of this kind of creativity over here though.

[via : Chicago Business ]

Corporate Blogging for Fun and Profit

Now that the influence of blogs as a medium outlet has been rising, many companies (most notably new online startups) have also started to jump on the bandwagon by publishing their own blogs – to varying degrees of success. While blogs like Google’s have afforded online readers a means to get updated on the firm and its going-ons, other corporate blogs like Dell’s have just floundered in the face of open criticism.

Here are a few ideas I have on how companies should run their blogs.

1) A blog is not just another marketing tool. If you are going to just plaster it with reviews / sneak peeks of your latest doodads, you may as well just do that in your online press release section. Be honest on the blog to keep your credibility up; customers can sniff a phony advertisement disguised as a blog post in the 1.5 seconds it takes for the post to load. Don’t even try.

2) Engage the customers. As a challenge, companies might try picking up their worst complain monthly and post it on their blog. Not only does it force a resolution to the issue el pronto, it gives an idea how a particular situation can be resolved for the other users facing the same problem (think FAQ). Publicize your complains and celebrate their resolutions!

3) Open surveys on product development paths to the users. The phrase “asketh and ye shall receive” comes to mind here. Play with the consumers and prod them for directions they want to see their product going. Sure beats the cost-effectiveness of other forms of surveys. Go a step further to ask them what wacky features they want to see in version 2.0 of your product! You may just end up with the exact product the consumers always wanted but other companies have been too clueless to produce.

4) Don’t just put PR people on the blog. Those professionals should be doing what they do best in the other promotional media. Drag your real life employees (bonus if you can find those already blogging about their work life) into being bloggers for the company. Inject fun into the system by encouraging them to play with the readers and consumers, answer their questions and overall increase interaction via the blog. It would be great if representations from different departments (a blogger each from engineering, sales and customer service) can jump into the fray also. Brownie points for best company blogger too!

5) Make sure everyone has fun. No doubt there are regulations and corporate info to keep secret but put everything else into the right gear to resonate with the readers. It may just pay off well in the long run.

And there you have it, some quick ideas to spruce up the ol’ website of yours. Give it a shot!

Friendster gets patent for social networking

Seems like Friendster just got awarded a patent for their online social networking model.

Typically I for one am not a big fan of patents as they have the power (if abused) to put an artificial damper on innovation and creativity, especially in the fast moving online industry. But what's interesting in this case is that this came out after many other site have started to build their business model around what is essentially the same concept that Friendster came up with. Perhaps this patent is their retort to all those who have stolen market share from the pioneer, who has since lagged behind the new fast followers.

However, it seems like the strength of the patent is in dispute also as some have claimed that there are examples of prior act. Also, patents typically do not signify a clear cut legal edge over competitors, instead, it just acts as a entry ticket to the legal system of patent disputes whose results may or may not go in favour of the patent holder.

In any case, it would be pretty interesting indeed to see what legal salvos this patent is going to offer Friendster.

[via : TechCrunch ]

Can websites Survive on Online Ad Revenues?

Ever since Google released Adsense, it changed the face of how people look at web advertising. Now, practically anyone and everyone could become either an advertiser or ad publisher. As more are taking to the web to spin out their own online ventures and trying to be the next big IT startup, one question I keep having is "what exactly is your revenue model?".

A lot of startups I see (especially local ones) basically follow this trend : "We offer the best (in our opinion) service or feature which everyone would use. We expect our user base to explode into the millions soon, then advertising revenue will start to flow in. Meanwhile its Google Adsense for us."

I would think that score A+ for optimism and pretty much a C- (a tad generous already) for feasibility. My rationale being that advertisers are a picky bunch and if you want to compete in this market, you can either choose to look at yourself in a broad sense as an "ad publisher" or more narrowly as an "online ad publisher".

If you want to opt for a broad definition, how do you compete with traditional advertising in all its forms? This would include print-ads, posters-ads, radio-ads and television ads just to name a few. Would you be more cost-effective or boast a high conversion ratios? Do you know the pricing model for each and can you target the right audience your advertisers are looking for ( meaning : do you know if the eyeballs on your site are glued to the head of a 16 year old youth or a 25 year old yuppie professional? )

How about just looking at a narrower scope as an "online ad publisher" ? Sounds like something more in your league? Hey,wait a minute, wouldn't that make your strongest and most direct competitor, the exact folks who were your first income source - Google Ads? Otherwise, is there any way you can build yourself into a strong value contender for online advertisers to consider?

I seems to paint a pretty bleak picture, don't I? But that's the way I see it and you can debate with me on it. I would not go so far to say that this is a sure-fail model but those who have succeeded with such a revenue model typically provide high value offerings for a certain demographic (who are also conveniently the biggest online spenders) that advertisers have great interest in.

But in most general case, I haven't found the ad revenue approach a really convincing model for startups to substain and grow themselves in the long term, but hey, some of you may just prove me wrong.

(PS: Logos show the big boys of online advertising. )